Monday, May 19, 2014

What Does 'Change' Mean? Part 3 (2013)

And now for my favorite part. Ranking is a relatively simple, straight-forward system, but it doesn't really tell you that much about how the mid-range names are changing. The most common names stay at about the same level of usage (you about equally likely to meet a Sophia as an Olivia or Emma, and it was about the same last year), and the more uncommon names tend to bounce around in rank. But it's the names in-between, which mostly avoid notice, that are going to seem to seemingly randomly burst into the Top 100 in a few short years.
Percentage analysis is the best way to find those names, IMO. I look at what percentage of babies in a year are given a certain name, and compare how that changes between years. Just look at Jackson--in 2012 it ranked #22, but jumped to #17 in 2013. However, its percentage of all total births didn't really change: 0.62%. About 6 of every 1000 boys was named Jackson both years.
Sadie, however, in its jump from #119 to #50, when from being used about 13 times for every 10000 babies to being used 24 times for every ten thousand babies. Your chance of meeting a baby Sadie nearly doubled between 2012 & 2013! And yet Sadie didn't show up in any of the ranking-jump analyses.

Biggest change in %:

Girls:
  1. Sadie (0.1338%-->0.2417%)
  2. Aria (0.1671%-->0.2663%)
  3. Charlotte (0.3860%-->0.4836%)
  4. Penelope (0.1306%-->0.2230%)
  5. Sofia (0.4042%-->0.4771%)
  6. Olivia (0.8923%-->0.9562%)
  7. Mia (0.6214%-->0.6844%)
  8. Harper (0.3723%-->0.4307%)
  9. Mila (0.1366%-->0.1918%)
  10. Scarlett (0.2092%-->0.2635%)
  11. Kendra (0.0415%-->0.0897%)
  12. Avery (0.4305%-->0.4777%)
  13. Ariana (0.1849%-->0.2296%)
  14. Amelia (0.3742%-->0.4179%)
  15. Evelyn (0.3558%-->0.3989%)
  16. Nicole (0.1372%-->0.1742%)
  17. Paisley (0.1511%-->0.1877%)
  18. Jaylah (0.0351%-->0.0712%)
  19. Violet (0.1692%-->0.2040%)
  20. Valentina (0.0986%-->0.1331%)


Boys:
  1. Jase (0.0555%-->0.2266%)
  2. Jace (0.2324%-->0.3170%)
  3. Jayceon (0.0089%-->0.0919%)
  4. Liam (0.8303%-->0.8999%)
  5. Oliver (0.2919%-->0.3604%)
  6. Camden (0.1285%-->0.1934%)
  7. Jaxon (0.3111%-->0.3739%)
  8. Lincoln (0.1434%-->0.2005%)
  9. Noah (0.8559%-->0.9043%)
  10. Hunter (0.3964%-->0.4442%)
  11. Silas (0.1224%-->0.1683%)
  12. Lucas (0.5283%-->0.5724%)
  13. Grayson (0.2324%-->0.2749%)
  14. Sebastian (0.3326%-->0.3747%)
  15. Henry (0.3984%-->0.4400%)
  16. Ryker (0.0817%-->0.1231%)
  17. Josiah (0.2705%-->0.3111%)
  18. Jaxson (0.1808%-->0.2208%)
  19. Jayce (0.0948%-->0.1321%)
  20. Mateo (0.1402%-->0.1773%)

Related to percentage analysis is the idea of relative frequency. It's great for pinning down the trendy names. Relative frequency shows just how likely you are to meet a baby born with a certain name now than you were last year (such as with Sadie--almost 2x as likely!). Quite often, this does overlap with a high jump in ranking, but not always.

The largest increases in relative frequency (from 2013's Top 1500):

Girls:
  1. Daleyza (11.81x)
  2. Janney (10.74x)
  3. Eiza (7.59x)
  4. Korie (4.28x)
  5. Mavis (3.84x)
  6. Ariane (3.08x)
  7. Everly (2.83x)
  8. Cambree (2.20x)
  9. Kendra (2.16x)
  10. Marjorie (2.16x)
  11. Alanis (2.11x)
  12. Lennon (2.10x)
  13. Jaylah (2.03x)
  14. Allisson (1.93x)
  15. Meera (1.91x)
  16. Jurnee (1.85x)
  17. Everleigh (1.82x)
  18. Sadie (1.81x)
  19. Marlowe (1.79x)
  20. Henley (1.78x)
Boys:
  1. Jaceon (12.14x)
  2. Jayceon (10.32x)
  3. Jaycion (8.86x)
  4. Jase (4.08x)
  5. Milan (3.24x)
  6. Atlas (2.42x)
  7. Bane (2.36x)
  8. Thiago (2.31x)
  9. Duke (2.09x)
  10. Jordi (2.09x)
  11. Jasen (2.07x)
  12. Deacon (1.88x)
  13. Ledger (1.88x)
  14. Jayse (1.85x)
  15. Kendrick (1.84x)
  16. Brixton (1.79x)
  17. Kyrie (1.78x)
  18. Zayn (1.76x)
  19. Harlem (1.70x)
  20. Castiel (1.70x)
So.....how about those Jase-names? My goodness. I'm flabbergasted. I'm guessing Janney is because of Jenni Rivera or her daughter Janney Marin. And Eiza is thanks to Eiza Gonzales. Not to mention Daleyza Hernandez. And Lennon, Alanis, Ledger, Castiel....
Is it just me, or is baby-naming getting waaaaaay more pop-culture driven? Or is it just the trendier names, and I've not really been aware of it until now? (I freely admit to much Googling)


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